Will the Rise of 4 Virginias help 1 Party?

An election brief of the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election by Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute covers new ground regarding a potential political realignment in the Commonwealth. The research team has discerned the development of 4 main geographic regions around which state political trends center: Northern Virginia, Tidewater, Capital Region, and Shenandoah. The report offers insights into what changing geographic, economic and demographic trends hold for future elections after Democrat Tim Kaine’s recent victory.

The authors note that their report "does not assert that the 2005 Virginia governor’s race will predict the outcome of the 2006 and 2008 elections. But it does examine the geography of the 2005 race and considers how some of the strategies used in the campaign may factor in the next midterm and presidential elections."

Among the key items discussed is the potential successof Democratic campaigns based on bread and butter issues like growth management, transportation and economic development in Republican-leaning states. While the jury is still out on all of the factors that swung Virginia in favor of a Democrat in 2005, the authors hold that:

Kaine has shown that with a direct appeal to quality of life issues, [and] Democrats can at least compete in the exurbs…Even if it does not work, the growth politics card will almost certainly be played and that may prove the most lasting impact of the 2005 Virginia election.

Although the analysis is not comprehensive, it does offer a good starting point to consider how politics in this reliably “red” state may be shifting. In particular, this should be of interest to progressives and centrists as Virginia’s outgoing governor, Mark Warner, begins his trek toward the 2008 presidential election.