2008 hinges on the South

This got my attention because of my interest in Arkansas politics, but it's really a statement about the evolution of Southern politics and the prominent role Southern states have assumed in presidential elections.

An article in the new edition of The Forum, a politics journal, says Southern states comprise six of the ten most critical presidential battlegrounds.

These ten states, pure and simple, hold the keys to victory in 2008 and beyond. ... Of these ten states, at least three—Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee—might be characterized as states that, historically, have been Republican at the presidential level, then moved away from those leanings in the 1990s to support Democratic nominees who hailed from those states (or nearby), and now have moved back to their more typical patterns of Republican voting in the last two presidential elections. ...

Democrats are competitive in Arkansas because, in contrast to most all other southern states, white voters have not completely written them off. Kerry lost white voters here 36%-63%, but that 63% for Bush was one of his lowest percentages in the region. Compared to Mississippi (where whites gave Bush 85% of their votes), Alabama (80%), South Carolina (78%), Georgia (76%), and Louisiana (75%), Arkansas whites are far more receptive to Democrats than most of the rest of the south, which is why Republicans have such a lock on those states. Arkansas remains a possibility for Democrats in 2008 and beyond if they can win a solid majority of women, maintain their overwhelming margins among black voters, and can hold down Republican margins among white voters. These are large “ifs,” to be sure. The results of the last two elections may signal that Arkansas—after the Clinton hiatus—is returning to its Republican presidential loyalties. But if Democrats are to pick off a state or two in the South, this remains one of their best opportunities.