About Those Jobs ...

(Cross-posted from the The Progressive Pulse, an NC blog)

Much of the reporting about the nation's economic troubles has focused on corporate issues to the virtual exclusion of the one part of the economy that touches almost every American: the labor market. While late, The New York Times finally has presented a much-needed analysis of how current conditions impact the ability of people to find and hold quality jobs.

Though top-level indicators suggest that America experienced an economic boom over the past several years, that boom generally bypassed the labor market, which never really rebounded from the 2001 recession. Since then, sluggish job creation has resulted in a slack demand for workers, which in turn has led to wage and income stagnation. In fact, a smaller share of America's working-age population is employed now than was the case in 2000. Similar declines have occurred in every major racial, age and educational category.

North Carolina has not been spared from these developments. A September 2007 analysis by the NC Budget & Tax Center documented the presence of similar trends across the Old North State.

Past developments suggest that the current economic downturn will differ from past ones. Given that the labor market never really recovered from the last recession, there likely will be fewer mass layoffs and large increases in the official unemployment rate. Instead, people who are unemployed likely will be out of worker for longer periods of time; settle for part-time, contingent or low-wage jobs; or abandon the labor market altogether. Workers with jobs, meanwhile, will be unlikely to see any wage gains. And if the labor recover takes as long as it did following the 2001 recession, it will be several years before the trends change.

All and all, not a rosy picture.